Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Division not good for Telangana?

95% of common men outside Telangana are against division due to several concerns but they may not come on streets and agitate for too long. Due to this, the politicians of these regions are in a really good bargaining position. They will surely demand to be compensated for their claim on development of Hyderabad during the period of United Andhra and the loss of future revenues of Hyderabad, when they sit for talks during division, apart from the administrative expenses and infrastructural costs for the new capital(s). The T politicians, on the other hand, do not have this luxury, and hence have to agree to all these demands.

These demands will surely take its toll on Hyderabad's development even is the center is bridging the deficit to some extent. So far, the state of AP was spending a major chunk on Hyderabad in its infrastructural budget. Now, that will have to be shared to all big cities in the form of compensation at the time of separation.It may be wise for Telangana people to stay united.

It does not stop there. Telangana will have to compromise big on water sharing agreements. If non-Andhra people (who are in large numbers and come with huge investements) in Hyderabad feel uncomfortable due to forces like TRS, they might prefer more attractive destinations like new capitals of newly formed states of united AP. If not the current investments, the future inflow will be affected. These will hurt the business sentiments and hence the jobs, further reducing the revenues of Hyderabad. The new capitals will be rivals for not just investments but for fields like IT.

The possibility of job losses and recession of Hyderabad as a result of division are admitted by the most ardent supporter of division, but only secretly. They continue to quote more job opportunities as a motive of division outside.

It is quite possible that Naxals are maintaining a strategic low-profile now. It is well known that Telangana politicians have to go soft on them because there is a significant portion of population sympathetic to them. Only because Non-Telangana leaders at the helm, Naxalism in Telangana and factionism in Rayalaseema are kept under control. There is a chance of Naxals making a come-back, thus hurting the business sentiment.

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