It has now become clear that division can happen with consensus. This means the loss of capital (city) or the opportunity cost of it has to be paid by either Telangana or the center. Whether they can pay it or not decides whether there will division not. Telangana politicians are made desperate by it's people to divide.
Now the center is willing to open it's purse upto 1 Lac crores and Telangana borrows from future to provide around 2 Lac crores to construct a new capital. The new capital all the infrastructure to give Hyderabad a run for its money. It includes non-productive but unavoidable infrastructure like secretariat, High courts, Assembly etc and useful things like international airport, IT SEZ, all very well-planned.
There will be assurance of current water supply from Krishna and Godavari. Anyway, Telangana is not in a position to use river water in a big way because it is at a high altitude. The future water needs of Coastal Andhra can also be bargained hard.
The IT recession seems to be getting over and new companies will be looking for new destinations. The IT corridor in Vijayawada is likely to be successful because majority of IT employees in Hyderabad are from Coastal Andhra and may be willing to move closer home. Many Indian IT companies will be eyeing the cheap land and local talent that the new capital is providing. However, many established MNCs re unlikely to harm existing facilities in Hyderabad. Vijayawada can eye only new opportunities.
The new capital will need 1 Lac acres of land with assured water supply. The farmers will fight tooth and nail to not allow its procurement. It might be so bad the capital can be named "Nandigram". :) Opposition parties will do heavy political scoring.
Andhra leaders might not make the political mistake of being with strong Rayalaseema leaders or having Kurnool as capital fearing a separate Rayalaseema movement in the future though the Kurnool can be a ideal capital city.
The new oil income will be exclusive to Coastl Andhra alone. Even if it's development work, it is assured of compensation from Hyderabd.
Friday, February 26, 2010
Division surely bad for Rayalaseema
How division affects Rayalaseema depends much on whether Rayalseema will be forced to be a separate state. It is said that Coastal Andhra + Rayalseema is not feasible. Further, Coastal Andhra politicians do not want Rayaseema politicians. Rayalaseema by itself is not feasible, but greedy politicians might accept division for their own gains. Naxalism coming back to Telangana might or might not happen but factionism will rule the roost in Rayalaseema. Only because it was part of larger Andhra factionism has been some kind of control. Now that the Telugu sentiment is old-fashioned, it might not be a bad idea for mine-rich Anantapur might find takers from Karnataka nd join Karnataka and benefit from proximity to Bangalore. Kurnool too can follow the same route and join Karnataka. Chittoor, for long, wanted to join Tamilnadu and benefit from proximity to Chennai. Orphans.
Injustice to Telangana exaggerated?
The media is/has always been pro-division. Probably because all the media houses are in Hyderabad? And the general perception there is that Telangana has been exploited over years?
Whatever, some of the claims of exploitation by pro-Telangana sites, universities, politicians, activists have been outrageous. This makes Telangana people see only the injustices but ignore the far superior benefits of a unified Andhra.
People have made it a career to create fabricated statistics, of course, without quoting the sources.
I was surprised recently when Human index numbers are better for Telangana than rest of AP. One can always find some minister favoring his constituency and some times himself. What one has to finally compare are the macro economic numbers, fund allocation numbers and natural resource utilization numbers. As these numbers are coming out, I feel my perception was wrong.
The river water utilization is claimed to be biased against Telangana. Then, somebody tells that Telangana is at a high level compared to the sea level and one needs expensive and non-feasible lift irrigation schemes. The number of hectares brought under irrigation of different regions is found to be proportional to the population. What is the problem then? The pro-T claims quote the percentage of land under irrigation. Come on, what is there is not water, what if it is forest area, what if it is high altitude. How can anyone use river water for that? Ponds and reservoirs are then the solution and that seems to have been done in proportion to the popultion.
The jobs. How can anybody blame the private sector? Telangana people have benefitted immensely from the investments of people of all regions. Govt. jobs, there is 610 GO which makes sure that locals are employed for all regions except Hyderabad. How many govt jobs are there in Hyderabad as a portion of total jobs in the state. Why should people cry so much if there is some "injustice" there?
Whatever, some of the claims of exploitation by pro-Telangana sites, universities, politicians, activists have been outrageous. This makes Telangana people see only the injustices but ignore the far superior benefits of a unified Andhra.
People have made it a career to create fabricated statistics, of course, without quoting the sources.
I was surprised recently when Human index numbers are better for Telangana than rest of AP. One can always find some minister favoring his constituency and some times himself. What one has to finally compare are the macro economic numbers, fund allocation numbers and natural resource utilization numbers. As these numbers are coming out, I feel my perception was wrong.
The river water utilization is claimed to be biased against Telangana. Then, somebody tells that Telangana is at a high level compared to the sea level and one needs expensive and non-feasible lift irrigation schemes. The number of hectares brought under irrigation of different regions is found to be proportional to the population. What is the problem then? The pro-T claims quote the percentage of land under irrigation. Come on, what is there is not water, what if it is forest area, what if it is high altitude. How can anyone use river water for that? Ponds and reservoirs are then the solution and that seems to have been done in proportion to the popultion.
The jobs. How can anybody blame the private sector? Telangana people have benefitted immensely from the investments of people of all regions. Govt. jobs, there is 610 GO which makes sure that locals are employed for all regions except Hyderabad. How many govt jobs are there in Hyderabad as a portion of total jobs in the state. Why should people cry so much if there is some "injustice" there?
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Division not good for Telangana?
95% of common men outside Telangana are against division due to several concerns but they may not come on streets and agitate for too long. Due to this, the politicians of these regions are in a really good bargaining position. They will surely demand to be compensated for their claim on development of Hyderabad during the period of United Andhra and the loss of future revenues of Hyderabad, when they sit for talks during division, apart from the administrative expenses and infrastructural costs for the new capital(s). The T politicians, on the other hand, do not have this luxury, and hence have to agree to all these demands.
These demands will surely take its toll on Hyderabad's development even is the center is bridging the deficit to some extent. So far, the state of AP was spending a major chunk on Hyderabad in its infrastructural budget. Now, that will have to be shared to all big cities in the form of compensation at the time of separation.It may be wise for Telangana people to stay united.
It does not stop there. Telangana will have to compromise big on water sharing agreements. If non-Andhra people (who are in large numbers and come with huge investements) in Hyderabad feel uncomfortable due to forces like TRS, they might prefer more attractive destinations like new capitals of newly formed states of united AP. If not the current investments, the future inflow will be affected. These will hurt the business sentiments and hence the jobs, further reducing the revenues of Hyderabad. The new capitals will be rivals for not just investments but for fields like IT.
The possibility of job losses and recession of Hyderabad as a result of division are admitted by the most ardent supporter of division, but only secretly. They continue to quote more job opportunities as a motive of division outside.
It is quite possible that Naxals are maintaining a strategic low-profile now. It is well known that Telangana politicians have to go soft on them because there is a significant portion of population sympathetic to them. Only because Non-Telangana leaders at the helm, Naxalism in Telangana and factionism in Rayalaseema are kept under control. There is a chance of Naxals making a come-back, thus hurting the business sentiment.
These demands will surely take its toll on Hyderabad's development even is the center is bridging the deficit to some extent. So far, the state of AP was spending a major chunk on Hyderabad in its infrastructural budget. Now, that will have to be shared to all big cities in the form of compensation at the time of separation.It may be wise for Telangana people to stay united.
It does not stop there. Telangana will have to compromise big on water sharing agreements. If non-Andhra people (who are in large numbers and come with huge investements) in Hyderabad feel uncomfortable due to forces like TRS, they might prefer more attractive destinations like new capitals of newly formed states of united AP. If not the current investments, the future inflow will be affected. These will hurt the business sentiments and hence the jobs, further reducing the revenues of Hyderabad. The new capitals will be rivals for not just investments but for fields like IT.
The possibility of job losses and recession of Hyderabad as a result of division are admitted by the most ardent supporter of division, but only secretly. They continue to quote more job opportunities as a motive of division outside.
It is quite possible that Naxals are maintaining a strategic low-profile now. It is well known that Telangana politicians have to go soft on them because there is a significant portion of population sympathetic to them. Only because Non-Telangana leaders at the helm, Naxalism in Telangana and factionism in Rayalaseema are kept under control. There is a chance of Naxals making a come-back, thus hurting the business sentiment.
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